* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 18 20 21 19 11 6 6 5 6 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 0 3 5 8 4 6 2 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 151 141 136 129 127 129 106 62 356 339 274 235 N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.5 21.3 21.0 21.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 94 92 89 87 84 81 78 75 73 69 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 54 54 54 50 50 48 42 36 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 8 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 41 54 64 63 69 61 49 39 29 8 6 N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -3 1 13 13 28 -6 -4 -13 -32 -17 -19 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -3 -3 6 -3 8 2 6 4 2 N/A LAND (KM) 950 947 946 937 926 921 935 963 1008 1101 1178 1265 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.0 120.2 120.3 120.4 120.8 121.5 122.3 123.3 124.6 125.7 126.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -27. -44. -57. -69. -76. -79. -81. -83. -85. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)