* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 37 42 49 55 62 68 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 37 42 49 55 62 68 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 33 34 38 43 52 64 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 19 18 15 17 7 6 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 -1 -1 -7 -5 -5 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 256 241 252 261 237 262 220 307 305 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.5 28.2 28.2 28.5 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 150 143 133 142 141 145 153 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 156 155 158 149 136 144 140 140 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 13 11 12 11 13 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 54 54 52 53 54 57 58 54 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 32 28 37 56 57 60 50 25 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 29 27 23 0 0 10 13 15 24 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -8 -5 -2 9 3 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 436 310 311 322 344 200 312 323 273 116 158 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.9 60.0 62.0 64.1 66.1 70.1 74.0 77.5 80.7 83.3 85.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 15 12 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 37 39 35 28 66 33 74 65 61 66 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 19. 25. 32. 38. 42. 44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)