* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 21 22 23 23 9 6 0 5 8 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 1 -1 6 5 8 6 0 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 138 125 126 118 116 133 90 79 49 297 284 248 N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.6 21.2 21.0 21.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 90 88 86 84 80 79 76 72 69 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 53 53 52 53 51 47 42 37 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 49 59 60 51 76 48 40 28 21 8 -1 N/A 200 MB DIV -8 2 13 17 21 8 -6 -21 -13 -18 -5 -6 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 7 15 15 19 12 6 4 N/A LAND (KM) 954 939 925 934 930 981 1031 1103 1192 1315 1405 1502 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.9 22.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.1 120.1 120.4 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.8 125.1 126.7 127.9 128.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -28. -43. -58. -68. -73. -76. -78. -79. -79. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)