* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 20 22 21 11 8 4 2 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 2 3 6 6 2 4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 120 124 118 123 120 59 62 341 271 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.4 21.2 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 86 85 84 81 79 75 73 75 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 52 53 52 53 50 50 44 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 62 56 54 78 67 54 57 52 46 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 13 40 30 25 -27 -17 -8 -12 -20 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -1 0 5 9 8 11 5 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 955 936 909 935 959 1069 1192 1335 1509 1689 1808 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 120.4 120.4 121.0 121.5 123.2 124.8 126.6 128.6 130.5 132.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -37. -51. -61. -67. -67. -69. -71. -71. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)