* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082012 08/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 36 37 41 44 47 46 45 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 36 37 41 44 47 46 45 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 39 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 23 23 26 25 17 13 18 21 19 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 7 7 5 0 2 -3 -4 -4 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 81 80 76 84 77 79 91 114 116 128 107 119 115 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 161 159 155 152 148 145 142 141 137 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 73 74 72 70 67 63 64 67 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 63 58 47 43 49 62 79 76 80 77 82 93 91 200 MB DIV 53 71 42 28 44 20 23 32 10 30 40 16 18 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 276 334 398 484 570 650 666 686 741 770 777 783 804 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.4 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.2 114.6 115.3 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 42 35 28 27 18 13 18 25 27 27 21 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 17. 16. 15. 12. 10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 EIGHT 08/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)