* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 45 49 58 50 47 42 35 28 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 45 49 58 50 47 42 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 42 42 41 42 44 45 46 44 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 25 19 20 17 14 13 15 17 24 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 3 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 75 74 82 91 83 80 80 73 128 140 141 147 135 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.9 25.5 24.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 155 153 152 149 147 143 138 131 117 103 91 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 72 70 68 67 69 67 69 66 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 18 23 17 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 68 84 94 107 103 104 101 104 102 96 75 200 MB DIV 49 51 45 36 42 56 34 30 4 9 7 13 -3 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 3 2 0 -4 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 399 471 470 488 510 541 583 597 592 609 627 640 644 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.8 110.6 111.0 111.4 112.0 112.7 113.3 113.9 114.7 116.0 117.0 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 17 17 18 19 18 18 16 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 18. 10. 7. 2. -5. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)