* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 38 39 44 42 39 35 29 23 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 38 39 44 42 39 35 29 23 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 38 36 34 31 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 16 19 17 19 20 17 20 25 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 1 2 -4 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 83 91 74 57 75 104 114 146 145 139 139 111 140 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.5 24.2 23.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 153 152 147 140 132 125 116 103 95 90 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 75 72 73 72 73 69 66 70 68 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 18 17 18 20 18 17 15 13 12 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 87 92 100 113 103 110 104 82 75 119 127 122 200 MB DIV 61 55 62 50 46 41 -6 15 28 25 16 12 -22 700-850 TADV 8 3 2 1 2 3 4 1 1 0 2 0 27 LAND (KM) 518 541 554 570 589 608 633 668 709 731 769 847 956 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.3 20.6 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 111.9 113.0 114.0 114.9 115.8 116.8 118.0 119.2 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 20 19 19 17 12 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)