* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 41 40 40 38 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 41 40 40 38 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 36 34 32 29 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 15 20 19 20 17 20 25 27 26 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 2 2 -3 0 -2 3 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 79 65 56 65 75 106 128 141 139 124 129 121 131 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.0 24.1 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 149 142 136 131 125 118 110 102 94 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 72 73 72 70 70 70 70 66 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 21 20 20 19 17 15 14 12 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 86 96 115 110 100 110 99 105 129 131 134 119 200 MB DIV 38 47 55 67 47 -1 0 1 20 37 40 -21 -21 700-850 TADV 4 -1 3 3 4 3 0 0 2 2 7 13 10 LAND (KM) 535 549 569 587 612 667 691 729 759 779 801 846 914 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.1 111.6 112.3 112.9 114.0 114.7 115.4 116.2 117.0 117.7 118.7 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 20 19 19 20 16 12 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -25. -33. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)