* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 34 33 33 36 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 34 33 33 36 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 29 28 27 27 25 24 21 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 16 23 21 16 16 18 21 26 25 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 0 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 72 56 58 78 95 113 132 143 129 122 115 132 113 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.5 25.6 24.7 24.0 23.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 149 145 140 133 126 117 107 100 95 89 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 4 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 74 73 72 68 68 68 68 65 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 23 21 20 23 20 18 16 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 85 103 122 126 118 122 125 127 149 140 121 109 97 200 MB DIV 38 56 56 48 27 35 8 42 20 19 -5 -9 0 700-850 TADV 2 9 6 1 5 0 -1 0 1 2 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 545 560 580 602 630 686 744 784 792 815 877 915 937 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.7 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.4 115.4 116.3 117.2 118.0 119.0 119.7 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 19 19 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 5. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -2. -2. 1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)