* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 48 57 67 74 79 85 89 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 40 42 50 39 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 44 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 8 7 3 7 3 7 3 8 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -6 -2 -7 -3 -6 -1 -6 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 249 247 210 254 310 104 73 144 132 153 132 87 80 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 29.2 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 142 140 141 146 157 165 162 162 168 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 142 140 141 145 156 162 157 155 160 161 160 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 10 11 8 11 8 11 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 58 62 66 66 68 68 72 73 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 8 6 6 5 6 6 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 57 56 52 48 36 27 29 21 27 38 53 200 MB DIV 29 31 28 27 34 46 34 48 28 15 21 34 69 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 2 -5 3 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 374 336 313 363 206 -12 28 -131 -144 -55 -118 -224 -195 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 76.5 78.1 79.7 81.3 84.3 87.3 90.0 92.3 94.5 96.5 98.4 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 51 70 69 53 22 71 0 0 43 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 27. 37. 44. 49. 55. 59. 64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/13/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)