* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 35 32 33 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 35 32 33 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 17 18 19 21 19 21 24 27 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 1 0 -1 2 -6 -3 -2 1 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 61 56 71 86 93 116 126 129 121 125 138 118 101 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.2 24.5 24.0 23.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 146 141 134 128 122 112 105 100 94 89 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 72 69 67 65 70 66 65 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 21 20 23 20 21 19 17 14 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 106 124 123 114 113 119 129 141 144 128 110 103 95 200 MB DIV 46 64 59 33 12 13 25 4 23 23 -23 -12 -17 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 2 2 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 568 596 627 656 689 736 770 778 802 830 870 935 1021 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.5 113.0 113.6 114.2 115.2 115.9 116.7 117.6 118.3 119.0 120.0 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 18 17 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 15. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 1. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. 0. -3. -2. -6. -11. -18. -23. -31. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)