* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 35 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 35 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 43 42 40 37 33 30 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 18 22 18 20 19 20 22 15 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -4 1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 70 77 91 96 108 139 135 128 115 122 111 102 100 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.7 24.9 24.1 23.4 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 144 141 137 132 126 117 109 101 93 89 85 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 72 70 69 69 69 71 66 65 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 22 21 20 18 17 15 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 123 126 128 120 130 127 121 126 125 113 103 92 75 200 MB DIV 57 71 24 11 9 10 27 3 19 6 0 3 -10 700-850 TADV 5 7 5 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 593 623 657 688 722 767 784 779 800 831 862 914 937 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.8 115.6 116.3 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.1 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 17 15 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -13. -19. -24. -30. -35. -43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)