* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 53 62 70 78 85 93 98 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 7 2 6 3 5 3 5 8 6 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 0 1 -1 1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 226 228 253 321 63 116 123 124 109 66 59 34 39 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 29.1 29.7 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 143 155 165 168 166 169 170 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 141 141 144 156 164 165 159 160 160 158 154 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 10 7 10 7 11 7 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 61 64 68 68 70 69 70 76 75 76 73 75 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 74 74 70 60 69 62 47 34 25 34 38 55 66 200 MB DIV 51 51 41 48 52 16 42 30 27 30 62 61 49 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 -6 -5 0 3 -3 1 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 408 393 226 53 -88 -77 -109 -152 -111 -161 -200 -172 -176 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.6 81.1 82.7 84.3 87.3 90.0 92.3 94.4 96.3 97.8 98.9 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 52 53 0 0 0 49 43 0 66 67 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 32. 40. 48. 55. 63. 68. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)