* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 42 39 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 42 39 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 43 42 39 35 31 26 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 21 21 18 21 27 27 24 25 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 0 0 -1 6 -4 2 3 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 81 92 98 119 121 132 121 123 118 103 93 97 104 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.0 23.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 140 137 133 128 121 116 109 100 91 84 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 73 72 72 72 73 68 67 58 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 20 22 21 19 17 15 13 11 10 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 120 127 120 130 132 121 120 116 108 102 95 82 63 200 MB DIV 67 23 13 23 10 8 3 32 13 -4 -2 -14 -13 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 2 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 1 LAND (KM) 632 654 679 696 715 744 763 737 718 725 762 814 862 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.4 113.9 114.3 114.7 115.3 115.9 116.3 116.6 117.2 118.1 119.1 120.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 16 14 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -23. -31. -38. -45. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)