* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 32 42 53 64 74 81 89 99 102 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 3 8 7 6 4 6 10 9 8 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -3 -1 0 -4 -1 -7 -4 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 220 258 339 72 77 75 91 101 100 107 54 54 35 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 147 153 165 170 171 169 170 170 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 141 146 153 164 167 166 163 163 161 156 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 10 8 10 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 63 66 64 70 71 74 73 75 78 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 6 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 67 70 73 57 57 35 33 30 44 51 65 200 MB DIV 46 49 69 60 67 37 35 28 40 55 36 61 57 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -4 -4 0 -1 -1 -1 2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 237 70 -85 -149 -122 -113 -133 -62 -108 -178 -179 -186 -205 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 82.6 84.1 85.5 86.8 89.5 91.7 93.7 95.5 97.2 98.5 99.5 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 56 0 0 14 36 18 51 48 62 67 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -3. -4. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 17. 28. 39. 49. 56. 64. 74. 77. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)