* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 22 22 21 25 24 21 23 21 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 1 1 2 -3 3 0 0 0 6 1 SHEAR DIR 85 97 108 114 127 139 125 108 101 90 101 94 103 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.1 24.3 23.5 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 137 135 130 125 119 111 103 95 88 84 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 72 72 70 71 70 65 60 55 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 20 19 17 14 13 11 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 126 117 124 130 130 124 119 115 107 94 77 56 49 200 MB DIV 31 28 31 6 -4 23 12 32 3 0 9 -21 4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 -1 -4 2 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 679 702 726 738 751 768 769 739 719 738 783 825 850 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.1 114.5 114.9 115.2 115.7 116.2 116.5 117.0 117.7 118.6 119.3 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 15 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -11. -19. -26. -33. -40. -47. -53. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)