* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 52 62 73 78 88 94 101 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 4 2 2 5 4 4 5 4 9 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 2 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 347 32 345 112 201 229 125 91 89 88 100 67 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 147 154 160 167 170 167 171 170 169 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 149 155 161 166 167 160 164 163 159 154 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 8 10 7 11 8 11 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 62 58 61 64 65 67 69 68 72 70 73 70 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 55 61 53 38 29 16 11 20 40 58 67 200 MB DIV 37 47 58 48 15 30 9 13 37 40 54 36 33 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -2 -2 0 3 -5 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 150 -1 -66 -37 -14 -203 -110 -126 -189 -166 -144 -119 -106 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.8 83.4 85.0 86.6 88.1 90.9 93.3 95.4 97.2 98.8 100.0 100.8 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 7 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 60 20 59 65 0 16 47 47 60 67 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -4. -2. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 37. 48. 53. 63. 69. 76. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)