* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 37 35 31 28 25 22 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 22 18 16 18 15 17 17 18 16 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 -1 1 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 100 112 116 129 133 138 134 114 112 113 119 108 95 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.8 22.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 133 130 124 120 109 100 92 87 87 86 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 70 69 67 66 61 60 60 61 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 19 18 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 114 123 128 129 124 121 113 116 106 100 83 64 60 200 MB DIV 34 40 26 2 -10 8 16 12 -9 1 -3 -15 -10 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 698 713 729 744 761 774 782 793 801 834 879 952 1050 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.6 114.9 115.3 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.7 118.4 119.2 119.9 120.9 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -23. -30. -35. -41. -45. -49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)