* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 50 58 69 78 83 91 98 104 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 5 6 4 3 6 6 9 8 6 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 342 71 28 59 53 211 160 128 113 87 86 36 70 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 150 156 161 166 170 167 171 170 169 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 149 156 160 164 164 160 163 166 162 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 69 67 71 71 72 73 75 75 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 5 7 7 5 7 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 67 60 54 40 23 16 14 29 32 57 69 200 MB DIV 71 76 61 16 21 36 17 42 34 46 58 44 59 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) -15 -152 -140 -111 -78 -193 -98 -101 -155 -142 -126 -131 -113 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.9 86.2 87.5 88.8 91.0 93.1 94.9 96.7 98.2 99.5 100.3 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 34 17 49 44 55 66 68 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 44. 53. 58. 66. 73. 79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/14/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)