* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 29 26 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 14 16 21 16 19 22 21 21 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 2 2 -4 0 -1 -1 -1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 120 117 102 107 114 120 111 75 89 102 101 104 126 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.5 22.9 22.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 133 131 124 116 106 100 95 89 84 79 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 72 71 72 68 68 62 58 53 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 18 17 14 13 10 8 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 128 134 132 132 128 119 118 97 81 75 64 49 24 200 MB DIV 13 30 21 21 28 34 44 -2 13 -7 -3 -18 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 829 832 837 839 844 830 805 815 877 941 999 1040 1079 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.3 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.3 115.6 115.9 116.2 116.8 117.4 118.1 119.0 120.0 121.1 122.3 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -19. -28. -36. -43. -50. -56. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)