* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 32 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 32 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 33 31 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 17 19 18 18 17 23 26 27 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 -1 0 0 0 -3 3 2 6 3 SHEAR DIR 105 105 113 120 118 105 94 93 92 88 96 108 127 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.0 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 132 129 123 111 101 94 91 88 84 80 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 74 72 68 61 58 55 51 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 15 13 12 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 121 115 107 105 103 84 75 64 47 37 17 7 200 MB DIV 26 34 32 38 44 58 11 4 13 4 3 -2 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 -4 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 842 842 844 840 838 812 801 823 860 911 968 1004 1061 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.3 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.5 115.8 116.1 116.3 116.8 117.7 118.5 119.2 120.0 120.9 121.9 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -32. -40. -49. -55. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)