* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 52 62 71 81 91 98 104 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 7 5 3 3 4 8 7 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 69 125 177 210 166 108 129 70 66 25 27 32 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 168 170 170 168 171 171 170 169 168 167 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 164 166 166 166 161 163 166 164 157 153 149 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 12 9 12 9 12 10 12 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 69 69 67 72 69 72 71 71 73 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 7 10 850 MB ENV VOR 55 45 40 33 24 21 34 28 37 52 65 65 69 200 MB DIV 0 23 25 18 13 12 26 9 32 39 43 71 52 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) -54 -108 -194 -140 -99 -137 -198 -153 -99 -55 -62 -44 -30 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 90.0 91.2 92.3 93.3 95.4 97.3 99.1 100.7 102.0 102.7 103.2 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 81 40 17 39 47 43 60 68 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 27. 37. 46. 56. 66. 73. 79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/15/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)