* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 44 51 56 61 65 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 31 40 47 52 57 61 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 31 35 40 48 57 64 70 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 10 7 7 5 1 14 11 17 10 18 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -3 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 122 151 177 197 211 269 19 296 318 307 308 305 307 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 161 159 156 158 162 162 158 154 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 161 157 151 147 143 143 146 145 141 133 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 69 69 72 71 70 70 64 66 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 19 4 -5 -6 -2 2 15 19 13 27 20 200 MB DIV 24 21 16 12 4 29 15 15 45 49 51 34 52 700-850 TADV 0 3 -2 -3 1 -4 -2 -2 3 4 4 14 7 LAND (KM) -86 -208 -166 -117 -57 19 49 83 79 56 52 61 102 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 45 0 26 19 33 45 53 56 51 55 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/15/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)