* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 31 29 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 29 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 21 22 21 22 18 20 20 20 22 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 108 112 113 117 116 96 102 91 89 89 101 121 155 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.0 23.4 22.4 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 128 122 111 95 84 76 70 66 62 58 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 79 79 73 70 67 62 58 57 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 105 96 89 92 68 66 55 41 33 17 10 19 200 MB DIV 63 53 56 46 61 18 0 21 -20 -11 -13 -12 1 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 729 690 653 635 596 538 495 528 537 531 504 489 494 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.1 22.4 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.5 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 114.9 114.9 115.1 115.3 115.7 116.4 117.2 118.0 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -17. -29. -43. -57. -67. -75. -81. -85. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)