* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 21 30 39 50 58 66 72 79 83 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 25 28 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 1 8 3 3 12 9 13 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 167 217 191 163 146 120 343 46 340 346 324 26 338 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 158 160 164 165 164 164 165 165 164 164 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 151 151 154 152 150 147 146 144 142 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 71 70 72 70 73 72 78 80 77 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 5 5 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 7 1 6 14 17 22 28 45 40 59 52 54 200 MB DIV 34 18 17 26 21 26 16 37 46 46 44 25 45 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 1 -3 -1 -4 0 0 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) -144 -84 -15 -7 3 -87 -185 -246 -284 -311 -328 -361 -387 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 93.0 94.0 94.9 95.8 97.3 98.7 99.8 100.5 100.9 101.1 101.4 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 4 7 23 2 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 10. 19. 30. 38. 46. 52. 59. 63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/16/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)