* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 66 68 68 65 57 52 43 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 66 68 68 65 57 52 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 52 59 63 61 56 49 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 3 2 8 12 19 25 38 46 45 43 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 -3 -2 -5 6 3 4 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 170 199 182 230 251 284 285 265 259 248 249 251 242 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.7 26.3 25.3 24.6 23.2 22.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 126 123 119 118 123 120 110 104 94 91 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 109 107 104 103 108 106 98 91 83 80 76 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 48 52 55 56 57 56 52 50 47 43 33 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 9 11 13 14 15 16 18 16 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR -100 -86 -68 -54 -50 -35 -19 -2 11 15 -7 18 16 200 MB DIV 14 28 30 10 21 28 16 27 42 29 -2 22 -1 700-850 TADV 5 5 -10 -17 -9 13 17 20 21 20 4 -26 -46 LAND (KM) 1596 1529 1467 1419 1362 1386 1576 1799 2034 1850 1531 1253 1012 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.5 33.3 34.0 34.6 35.2 34.8 34.8 35.4 36.4 37.7 38.9 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 54.6 53.8 52.2 50.5 46.7 42.9 38.6 34.0 30.0 26.7 23.7 20.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 15 16 16 16 18 18 16 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 8 5 3 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 12 CX,CY: 1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 9. 6. 1. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 7. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 31. 33. 33. 30. 22. 17. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/16/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)