* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * SEVEN AL072012 08/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 21 24 30 38 46 52 57 61 66 67 V (KT) LAND 20 24 24 25 28 34 42 50 56 61 66 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 24 25 26 28 32 37 42 48 55 59 63 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 1 1 5 14 11 14 15 14 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 2 0 -3 -1 -2 3 3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 217 197 170 192 8 240 326 274 309 269 301 263 294 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 160 161 165 161 156 153 151 150 146 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 150 149 151 145 138 132 130 128 124 121 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 12 10 8 14 11 15 11 13 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 69 71 67 65 63 72 71 67 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 3 10 17 9 16 13 7 18 3 -1 -14 200 MB DIV 17 17 26 18 34 14 27 48 21 54 27 26 0 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 -4 -9 -1 -4 3 4 11 5 1 1 LAND (KM) -52 24 45 74 43 48 79 51 51 50 32 17 17 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 26 17 30 39 46 48 53 52 51 47 39 37 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 4. 10. 18. 26. 32. 37. 41. 46. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/16/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)