* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 57 63 65 66 64 53 46 40 33 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 57 63 65 66 64 53 46 40 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 54 58 61 60 56 50 44 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 8 12 13 23 28 34 46 34 42 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 2 6 0 1 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 261 229 271 270 285 285 277 263 249 243 252 241 230 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.6 26.6 25.7 25.2 24.3 23.1 22.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 120 118 117 122 122 113 109 102 94 90 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 104 103 102 106 107 100 96 90 83 80 76 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 52 55 54 54 52 50 45 38 28 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 13 13 15 15 17 20 17 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -72 -53 -57 -49 -42 -13 -4 13 10 -6 -13 -13 200 MB DIV 27 24 20 18 22 13 12 31 35 -7 14 15 -3 700-850 TADV 12 -5 -13 -13 5 0 15 11 8 8 13 -26 -30 LAND (KM) 1487 1439 1349 1348 1366 1529 1695 1904 2009 1726 1399 1105 826 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.8 34.6 34.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 35.1 35.6 36.5 37.8 39.2 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 53.1 51.8 50.0 48.1 44.2 40.5 36.4 32.3 28.6 25.2 22.0 18.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 5 4 3 3 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. -1. -5. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 6. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 23. 25. 26. 24. 13. 6. 0. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/16/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)