* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 23 23 24 32 33 27 22 18 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -1 3 -4 1 2 3 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 113 109 101 96 95 91 84 92 92 97 102 120 147 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.4 23.5 23.0 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 116 110 104 94 88 84 81 78 75 70 67 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 75 73 67 63 57 55 50 49 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 111 101 92 75 57 43 28 26 24 32 36 47 200 MB DIV 53 44 29 35 -9 -6 -15 -11 -31 -19 -7 -33 -12 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 -4 -6 -2 -4 -2 -2 -6 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 714 680 649 627 609 577 565 564 569 558 566 602 619 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.9 22.4 22.8 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.1 116.2 116.5 116.7 117.0 117.2 117.4 117.5 117.8 118.3 119.3 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 3 4 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -17. -28. -45. -56. -63. -69. -73. -76. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)