* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 71 73 74 72 71 62 54 45 34 26 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 71 73 74 72 71 62 54 45 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 68 70 71 72 70 65 57 49 43 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 14 13 21 28 36 40 40 40 49 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -4 1 3 3 4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 214 235 284 297 277 282 270 259 255 249 243 238 233 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.2 25.3 24.8 23.4 22.7 21.6 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 117 117 119 122 118 110 106 96 92 86 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 104 102 102 104 107 104 97 93 85 81 77 74 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 52 53 52 51 51 54 53 36 25 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 14 15 15 14 15 18 18 18 17 12 7 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -52 -51 -44 -39 -26 -13 11 13 12 23 31 15 200 MB DIV 39 34 24 10 13 10 10 48 24 44 12 -2 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -17 -9 4 17 5 24 20 33 13 -35 -54 -72 LAND (KM) 1422 1374 1340 1370 1416 1585 1799 2014 1888 1555 1237 960 696 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.4 34.9 35.0 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.4 36.2 37.4 38.8 40.0 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 51.4 49.8 48.0 46.1 42.3 38.3 34.3 30.5 26.9 23.5 20.3 17.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 17. 16. 7. -1. -10. -21. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/16/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)