* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 23 24 24 25 33 29 27 20 15 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 0 1 2 0 0 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 105 95 91 89 96 84 83 90 96 109 130 128 N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.3 22.9 22.2 21.8 21.1 20.9 21.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 112 107 100 92 88 80 77 70 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 71 66 62 58 55 52 47 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 95 84 75 63 52 31 28 20 23 34 31 N/A 200 MB DIV 46 38 35 1 -18 -8 -26 -20 -20 -12 -2 -15 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 -3 1 -3 0 2 3 N/A LAND (KM) 682 658 636 613 595 573 560 569 560 581 611 664 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.5 24.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.2 116.4 116.6 116.8 117.1 117.2 117.7 118.1 119.0 119.9 120.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 3 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -13. -17. -18. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -8. -17. -31. -45. -58. -66. -71. -74. -76. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)