* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 68 70 70 69 69 66 57 49 39 29 20 V (KT) LAND 60 65 68 70 70 69 69 66 57 49 39 29 20 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 68 70 71 71 68 62 54 47 42 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 12 12 21 23 36 43 39 42 52 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 0 1 7 1 5 2 2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 241 275 276 259 273 259 248 248 238 236 235 226 219 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.6 25.7 25.1 24.0 22.9 22.0 21.1 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 116 120 121 122 113 108 100 94 89 85 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 101 104 105 107 100 95 88 83 79 76 74 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 54 52 50 50 53 50 49 49 40 27 22 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 16 15 14 17 20 19 19 16 11 5 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -57 -50 -43 -44 -12 2 15 20 13 21 18 -2 200 MB DIV 21 22 14 20 -1 18 26 42 29 26 23 4 17 700-850 TADV -17 -17 0 12 -2 13 5 20 22 0 -26 -59 -69 LAND (KM) 1365 1363 1379 1444 1522 1720 1931 2006 1709 1349 1001 691 387 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.0 34.9 34.7 35.0 35.7 36.8 38.2 39.6 40.8 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 49.4 47.6 45.8 43.9 40.2 36.1 32.2 28.5 24.7 20.8 17.1 13.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 6. -3. -11. -21. -31. -40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/17/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)