* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 24 26 26 31 32 23 19 15 14 12 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 3 0 3 -2 -1 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 89 89 84 87 93 77 93 102 108 123 150 157 N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.3 23.8 23.0 22.4 21.7 21.2 20.6 19.9 20.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 109 103 98 89 83 76 71 65 57 57 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 70 67 64 58 57 53 51 46 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 75 63 56 42 33 26 22 23 30 33 26 N/A 200 MB DIV 17 23 10 -4 0 -28 -12 -28 -10 -2 -11 1 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 1 5 3 N/A LAND (KM) 649 613 581 556 536 504 459 399 349 340 348 397 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.7 26.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.1 116.2 116.4 116.5 116.7 116.6 116.8 117.0 117.7 118.3 118.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -11. -23. -39. -55. -68. -75. -80. -84. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)