* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 37 45 52 61 66 72 74 77 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 4 11 13 21 14 14 10 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 6 1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 333 11 281 315 340 340 10 336 15 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 161 159 155 155 154 153 151 151 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 147 145 143 138 134 132 131 129 129 128 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 11 14 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 68 64 66 65 70 76 75 74 68 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 4 6 6 5 8 8 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 3 -2 11 16 17 31 33 34 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 28 23 14 8 37 67 39 27 19 29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -6 -1 -8 -4 0 3 10 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 83 58 32 4 -78 -163 -153 -81 -71 -122 -112 -40 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.8 23.6 23.7 23.3 23.3 24.1 24.2 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.9 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.6 99.4 99.3 98.6 98.5 99.0 98.9 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 7 6 3 2 2 2 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 46 51 47 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 20. 27. 36. 41. 47. 49. 52. 54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/17/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)