* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP082012 08/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 28 28 33 34 24 18 18 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -2 1 1 2 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 76 80 82 81 91 109 110 118 136 149 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.2 22.6 22.2 21.7 21.3 20.9 20.4 20.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 107 102 97 92 85 80 75 71 68 62 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 70 66 64 60 54 51 49 45 44 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 65 61 45 38 30 29 25 28 39 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 5 -7 -6 -14 -20 -11 -17 15 2 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 0 2 2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 629 610 594 555 521 480 456 405 386 415 457 509 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.2 23.7 24.4 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.5 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.9 117.2 118.0 118.9 119.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -13. -27. -43. -58. -68. -74. -78. -83. -85. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082012 HECTOR 08/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)