* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 42 50 59 65 69 72 70 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 9 13 9 17 13 20 18 26 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 4 -2 1 -1 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 325 46 274 329 349 330 348 326 336 308 325 311 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 161 159 157 157 159 162 160 159 161 158 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 149 147 145 141 140 139 140 139 136 138 134 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 14 12 10 14 11 14 9 11 6 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 65 66 67 68 78 77 68 62 66 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 7 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 2 13 22 18 33 31 16 12 11 9 N/A 200 MB DIV 26 11 2 2 22 70 53 46 2 37 -12 0 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 -8 -9 -1 9 7 1 -4 -2 -10 N/A LAND (KM) 52 31 10 -22 -35 -143 -223 -310 -340 -277 -291 -364 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 48 31 57 50 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 25. 34. 40. 44. 47. 45. 42. 44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)