* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 57 59 59 54 48 42 34 27 22 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 57 59 59 54 48 42 34 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 55 56 58 56 52 47 42 39 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 14 18 21 31 38 38 40 41 46 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -3 -2 1 3 7 2 -1 2 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 274 274 274 252 248 241 232 227 236 227 227 227 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.6 25.8 25.4 24.3 23.3 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 124 124 122 114 111 102 96 91 85 82 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 109 109 107 100 98 91 85 80 74 70 69 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.9 -55.5 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 50 50 47 48 39 32 24 18 17 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 18 20 20 18 17 12 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -52 -48 -39 -28 -18 2 9 8 8 0 -24 -38 200 MB DIV 7 0 -5 1 15 27 24 24 8 8 0 3 -20 700-850 TADV 2 5 -2 -1 12 0 17 -2 -8 -22 -32 -35 -26 LAND (KM) 1430 1510 1603 1702 1812 2021 1951 1691 1299 988 742 659 697 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.3 35.1 36.2 37.6 38.6 39.2 39.7 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 45.4 43.4 41.5 39.5 35.6 31.9 28.1 24.0 20.6 17.8 16.8 17.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 13 8 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. -1. -7. -13. -21. -28. -33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)