* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 58 59 57 53 46 36 30 25 21 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 58 59 57 53 46 36 30 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 59 58 55 49 44 41 39 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 17 20 31 34 36 37 37 40 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 4 4 6 0 0 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 277 274 280 266 240 251 236 246 237 239 238 236 241 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.9 23.5 22.9 22.2 22.3 22.0 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 125 122 118 112 107 97 92 86 86 86 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 109 110 108 104 99 94 86 81 74 73 75 74 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -54.1 -54.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 49 48 48 48 34 27 20 22 25 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 17 18 19 16 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -52 -40 -32 -31 -8 1 -10 13 -7 -20 -15 -7 200 MB DIV -5 -8 4 22 45 26 19 8 -1 0 10 21 -17 700-850 TADV 4 -4 -1 9 9 25 2 3 -28 -19 -22 -37 -57 LAND (KM) 1538 1633 1738 1832 1935 2054 1791 1449 1110 907 831 700 516 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.1 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.6 35.7 37.1 38.5 39.0 38.7 39.0 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 43.2 41.3 39.3 37.3 33.4 29.6 25.6 22.0 19.7 18.8 17.3 15.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 16 17 17 12 6 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 2. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -9. -19. -25. -30. -34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)