* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL072012 08/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 54 60 66 70 70 70 66 67 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 11 7 8 16 8 11 13 10 19 24 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -3 1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 307 316 347 14 309 358 305 341 258 317 273 316 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 163 162 161 159 161 158 155 155 163 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 148 147 144 140 137 138 136 133 134 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 11 14 11 13 9 12 6 8 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 69 68 68 74 75 72 60 60 55 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 18 15 17 31 56 51 28 9 2 -9 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -5 22 39 56 57 52 15 12 -22 10 -9 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -1 -2 1 0 -2 -7 -1 -6 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 88 64 9 10 -45 -122 -163 -202 -185 -162 -130 -143 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.3 26.2 27.3 28.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.7 97.2 97.8 98.3 99.0 99.4 99.8 99.4 98.9 98.7 98.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 5 5 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 54 51 29 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 31. 35. 35. 35. 31. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 HELENE 08/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 HELENE 08/18/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)