* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 64 64 63 58 51 43 34 26 19 15 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 64 64 63 58 51 43 34 26 19 15 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 65 65 63 56 49 44 41 39 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 18 21 29 29 42 34 39 43 48 49 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 9 1 1 -2 -4 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 268 275 273 247 255 241 244 235 239 235 231 225 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.7 24.1 23.2 22.3 21.9 21.9 22.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 125 119 114 101 95 89 85 84 85 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 113 110 106 101 90 84 78 74 73 74 74 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -55.3 -54.8 -54.7 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 48 47 50 46 36 25 23 24 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 18 17 17 13 10 8 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -39 -30 -27 -21 -1 3 6 11 -9 -27 -15 -7 200 MB DIV 0 13 19 39 25 14 16 23 18 8 24 22 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -1 16 9 4 22 9 0 -12 -25 -28 -31 -39 LAND (KM) 1626 1717 1817 1922 2037 1869 1587 1226 933 734 631 493 347 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.3 34.4 35.1 36.5 37.8 39.0 39.5 39.3 38.8 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 41.3 39.4 37.3 35.2 30.9 27.0 23.2 20.0 17.7 16.5 14.9 13.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 17 17 17 17 17 15 11 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. -2. -9. -17. -26. -34. -41. -45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/18/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)