* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL072012 08/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 39 41 46 51 57 57 58 51 45 45 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 39 41 35 39 31 29 33 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 35 38 31 29 33 28 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 6 13 11 13 5 24 22 42 55 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 2 0 2 -1 0 1 0 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 327 343 4 338 357 15 320 306 322 318 325 335 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.8 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 161 160 156 151 152 155 165 156 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 144 143 142 140 136 131 131 133 141 133 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 14 12 12 12 9 6 5 3 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 68 70 73 70 58 54 57 45 42 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 12 5 1 7 27 31 15 -4 15 -28 -24 N/A 200 MB DIV -9 19 39 44 33 39 19 -5 -9 0 -36 -30 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 3 4 3 0 -1 0 6 3 N/A LAND (KM) 79 32 4 29 18 0 9 -41 -6 0 -82 -206 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.4 23.3 24.4 25.5 26.7 28.0 29.3 31.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.9 97.3 97.5 97.7 97.8 97.7 97.8 97.4 96.9 96.5 95.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 54 41 47 35 21 29 34 23 26 36 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 22. 23. 16. 10. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 HELENE 08/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 HELENE 08/18/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)