* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 65 66 63 57 51 41 32 24 19 17 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 65 66 63 57 51 41 32 24 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 64 65 65 62 55 48 43 40 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 25 29 33 39 41 41 42 38 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 6 4 1 -5 0 2 6 7 8 SHEAR DIR 269 256 243 260 247 236 237 229 238 241 234 227 233 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.3 23.7 23.0 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 125 120 117 110 98 93 87 85 85 85 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 111 106 104 97 87 83 77 73 73 73 73 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 47 48 48 39 30 29 31 30 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 15 18 18 17 16 12 10 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -26 -22 -20 -11 -14 -14 -14 -22 -20 -3 4 0 200 MB DIV 14 15 41 14 24 27 20 5 12 16 20 5 34 700-850 TADV -3 14 0 2 17 8 14 -22 -22 -18 -31 -41 -50 LAND (KM) 1719 1818 1927 2024 2063 1782 1463 1115 820 648 584 492 411 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.3 34.6 35.5 36.9 38.2 39.2 39.2 38.4 38.2 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 39.6 37.6 35.6 33.5 29.6 25.7 22.0 18.7 16.7 15.9 14.8 13.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 15 11 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 3. -3. -9. -19. -28. -36. -41. -43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/18/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)