* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL072012 08/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 41 46 52 53 52 49 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 13 18 8 9 13 24 27 44 50 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 1 0 2 2 -1 -1 3 -2 -8 N/A SHEAR DIR 346 7 3 355 11 324 321 282 340 315 335 326 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 159 157 155 152 150 151 159 165 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 140 140 138 135 133 130 129 129 136 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 14 12 10 14 9 11 6 7 3 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 72 75 74 68 57 56 56 59 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 10 13 21 30 24 1 -2 -7 -18 -40 N/A 200 MB DIV 17 45 53 49 28 40 -5 -10 -17 0 -33 -32 N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 0 -3 0 0 0 -3 0 3 4 9 N/A LAND (KM) 5 -43 -92 -94 -92 -81 -74 -90 -81 -34 -66 -176 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.3 27.4 28.5 30.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.3 98.8 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.5 98.4 98.1 97.7 97.3 96.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 29 34 26 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 3. -2. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 22. 23. 22. 19. 15. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 HELENE 08/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 HELENE 08/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)