* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 74 72 66 60 50 40 30 23 18 17 V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 74 72 66 60 50 40 30 23 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 74 73 71 64 57 51 46 43 41 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 23 21 28 34 30 34 41 40 41 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 8 5 3 -3 0 0 6 0 11 6 SHEAR DIR 251 238 247 246 241 239 238 242 238 241 244 253 271 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 24.8 23.4 23.0 22.4 22.2 22.2 22.1 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 121 117 114 105 96 92 88 86 86 85 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 107 103 100 92 84 81 77 75 74 74 72 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -54.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 49 50 46 34 27 29 30 31 35 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 19 19 18 18 13 10 8 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -19 -9 -11 -1 -4 -23 -21 -19 -5 -3 -11 200 MB DIV 20 41 25 14 1 18 -2 23 24 8 8 28 -13 700-850 TADV 15 10 1 11 31 6 2 -4 -8 -25 -27 -15 -18 LAND (KM) 1816 1918 2029 2073 1925 1673 1378 1097 866 693 575 446 337 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.6 34.9 35.8 37.2 38.2 38.7 38.7 38.4 38.4 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.6 37.6 35.6 33.7 31.7 28.1 24.8 21.8 19.2 17.2 15.8 14.3 13.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 9 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -10. -20. -30. -40. -47. -52. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 4( 12) 3( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)