* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL072012 08/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 45 49 53 52 49 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 29 26 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 33 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 14 13 8 13 5 15 18 31 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 4 -2 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 357 323 354 3 23 320 315 302 339 319 340 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 158 157 154 153 152 155 165 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 137 137 136 135 133 132 130 133 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 12 10 12 12 11 8 8 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 73 74 76 72 66 53 59 53 57 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 8 17 29 31 21 -2 10 -8 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 43 47 38 48 34 17 -25 4 -12 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 7 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -82 -104 -130 -122 -112 -81 -51 -18 18 55 -21 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.6 98.3 97.6 97.1 96.7 96.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 39 38 40 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 20. 24. 28. 27. 24. 27. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 HELENE 08/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 HELENE 08/18/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)