* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 91 86 80 69 60 49 37 28 20 16 15 V (KT) LAND 90 93 91 86 80 69 60 49 37 28 20 16 15 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 94 88 81 68 58 52 48 46 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 26 24 28 32 30 35 39 37 41 33 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 9 5 3 -2 0 2 7 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 240 259 250 234 232 236 235 232 239 239 254 262 295 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.3 23.9 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.4 22.1 21.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 117 114 110 99 94 90 88 88 87 84 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 107 104 100 96 87 82 78 76 76 76 74 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -56.1 -57.3 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 51 49 40 33 28 28 30 30 35 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 19 19 18 19 16 12 9 8 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -15 -15 -2 -11 -8 -16 -36 -24 -20 -19 -31 -46 200 MB DIV 35 30 5 7 23 31 4 19 5 11 7 -11 -7 700-850 TADV 10 4 25 24 18 8 -11 -22 -29 -43 -27 -25 -17 LAND (KM) 1933 2040 2033 1894 1761 1498 1208 1000 853 680 479 303 146 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.3 34.5 35.0 35.4 36.6 37.8 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.5 38.8 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 35.4 33.2 31.3 29.4 26.0 23.0 20.7 19.0 17.0 14.7 12.7 10.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 14 11 8 7 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -25. -34. -42. -48. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -4. -10. -21. -30. -41. -53. -62. -70. -74. -75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/18/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 7( 28) 3( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)