* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 90 82 73 57 47 36 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 95 90 82 73 57 47 36 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 96 91 84 76 63 54 48 45 43 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 25 32 40 37 33 40 37 35 26 31 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 9 4 3 -6 0 -4 5 0 7 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 246 242 230 230 227 231 224 231 246 281 308 304 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.3 23.3 22.8 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 114 109 102 94 90 87 85 84 84 84 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 101 96 90 82 78 75 74 72 72 72 72 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.6 -54.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 -55.5 -56.3 -56.4 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 49 46 43 35 30 28 29 31 33 43 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 20 20 19 17 15 11 9 7 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -19 -8 -14 1 -3 -25 -33 -31 -25 -41 -32 10 200 MB DIV 25 24 7 22 37 6 14 23 16 -6 0 3 16 700-850 TADV 0 14 31 17 4 -4 -10 -16 -23 -30 -19 -14 3 LAND (KM) 2058 2016 1859 1726 1587 1273 1067 898 751 639 570 485 404 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.6 34.9 35.6 36.2 37.6 38.5 39.0 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.4 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 33.0 30.9 28.9 26.9 23.7 21.5 19.6 17.9 16.6 15.8 14.8 13.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 16 12 9 7 6 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 20 CX,CY: 20/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -32. -42. -50. -57. -61. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -20. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -5. -13. -22. -37. -48. -59. -71. -79. -86. -90. -90. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/19/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 12( 27) 4( 30) 0( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)