* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/19/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 78 70 63 50 37 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 78 70 63 50 37 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 86 80 73 66 56 49 45 42 40 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 31 36 34 34 33 39 39 32 17 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 244 242 225 224 229 233 232 226 220 229 257 306 307 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.5 23.0 22.1 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 21.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 107 101 96 93 86 83 84 84 85 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 100 95 89 85 81 75 72 72 73 73 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -55.5 -55.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -55.7 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 46 45 39 35 27 24 26 27 33 41 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 18 19 19 17 12 7 5 5 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 -12 8 -5 -7 -31 -50 -46 -50 -44 -34 -18 200 MB DIV 41 0 24 53 31 0 9 10 11 -16 -3 8 27 700-850 TADV 13 23 22 0 13 -18 -26 -23 -31 -28 -18 -23 -24 LAND (KM) 1991 1840 1688 1563 1391 1096 880 744 648 544 414 303 198 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.2 35.6 36.3 37.0 38.3 39.3 39.6 39.3 39.1 39.0 39.1 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 30.5 28.4 26.7 24.9 21.8 19.4 17.8 16.7 15.5 14.0 12.7 11.4 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 16 15 12 8 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 20 CX,CY: 20/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -13. -21. -30. -40. -47. -53. -56. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -13. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -15. -15. -14. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -20. -27. -40. -53. -65. -75. -80. -80. -83. -84. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/19/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/19/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 6( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED