* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 70 62 54 41 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 78 70 62 54 41 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 78 72 65 60 52 47 44 41 40 39 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 32 37 36 34 33 35 36 36 29 19 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 -3 0 0 -4 3 2 2 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 243 226 221 236 229 235 226 219 224 272 297 278 255 SST (C) 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.4 23.1 22.3 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.3 20.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 107 101 96 94 88 85 83 83 83 82 79 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 94 89 85 83 77 74 72 72 72 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -55.9 -55.4 -55.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 43 42 29 26 26 29 30 38 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 19 17 14 9 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 5 -7 5 -15 -37 -41 -39 -57 -55 -32 -21 200 MB DIV -8 16 55 13 5 9 10 20 -13 -35 12 22 48 700-850 TADV 28 21 4 20 0 -10 -9 -21 -24 -25 -12 -25 1 LAND (KM) 1850 1718 1564 1399 1239 984 778 643 540 437 342 233 68 LAT (DEG N) 35.2 35.8 36.4 37.2 38.0 39.1 39.6 39.8 39.7 40.0 40.6 41.5 42.8 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 28.7 26.7 25.1 23.4 20.6 18.2 16.6 15.4 14.2 12.9 11.6 9.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 11 8 5 5 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 18 CX,CY: 17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -29. -37. -44. -49. -52. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -31. -44. -55. -65. -73. -80. -83. -84. -82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/19/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 4( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED