* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 60 52 46 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 67 60 52 46 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 62 57 53 47 43 40 39 38 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 37 35 35 36 32 33 35 29 22 39 48 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 0 1 0 0 4 3 5 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 227 227 241 227 231 233 229 217 247 299 315 300 281 SST (C) 24.9 24.2 23.5 23.3 22.8 22.1 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 107 101 96 95 91 86 84 84 83 83 83 82 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 89 85 83 80 75 72 72 72 72 72 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.9 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 -54.6 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 45 44 40 40 34 27 24 27 27 38 46 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 15 15 11 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 2 -3 0 -11 -37 -60 -60 -53 -32 0 33 53 200 MB DIV 28 49 11 10 7 5 1 8 -24 25 11 1 -15 700-850 TADV 19 11 19 6 -2 -23 -15 -29 -29 -26 -8 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 1693 1561 1391 1244 1102 889 777 691 614 533 445 341 182 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.8 38.5 39.3 39.3 39.2 39.4 39.8 40.4 41.4 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 26.7 24.9 23.4 21.9 19.5 18.2 17.2 16.3 15.3 14.2 12.9 11.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 12 7 5 3 4 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 19 CX,CY: 18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -30. -35. -39. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -29. -41. -51. -60. -66. -69. -73. -77. -80. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/19/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED